Trump won’t renew the deal.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement stays on life support, not because everyone loves it, but because Washington hit the brakes. It triggers a 10-year review process. That means the deal stays alive until 2036 if nobody agrees to extend it. Or if one of us changes our mind.
Six months’ notice gets you out. Any time.
The Auto Game
Here’s the rub. Cars.
The Trump team wants the rules of origin to change. Right now, you need 75% of your vehicle made from North American parts to avoid heavy tariffs. Simple math. Preferential treatment.
Washington wants 82%.
They also want half that content—50% total—to come strictly from American soil. This is about supply chains. And leverage.
The USMCA dictates that 75% of a car must be built locally to dodge the heat.
Miss that mark and you pay. A 27.5% tariff on the foreign value of the car. The old 2.5% plus a brand new 25% penalty for “global sourcing.”
Who wins? Who loses?
Domestic manufacturers like Ford and GM are caught in the middle. Their council says the integration is good for business. “Enormous competitive benefits.” Sure. But they’re sweating the non-compliant imports. Countries facing flat 15% tariffs without strict rules of origin? Those imports undercut the U.S. assembly lines. They want certainty. Investors hate ambiguity. Capital is scared money.
Foreigners Cheer
Meanwhile, the international brands love the current setup.
Autos Drive America—basically the lobby for foreign auto giants in the States—called it a success. They say billions flowed into U.S. plants. Thousands of jobs were created.
“We urge leaders to preserve the existing partnership,” their statement reads. Stability. Predictability. Things the industry has enjoyed for six years.
Canada wants to extend the deal.
Mexico wants to extend it.
The U.S. says no. Not yet.
Trump once called this the “most important trade deal ever.” Five years later, he’s treating it like a draft proposal. The irony is thick enough to spread on bread.
Next talks are July 20 in Mexico. Don’t hold your breath for a quick fix. It will drag. It always does.
The question isn’t whether the deal survives.
It’s what it looks like when it does.
